Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. But for now, we can revel in the fact that Jason Heyward, yeah he does a pretty good Mike Trout impression. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves . Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. by Retrosheet. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Donate to FanGraphs. 12 years and 0 . Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Age is the decisive factor here. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? The shift movement had already produced some . His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Some call it a sweeper. Perhaps rightfully so. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. by Retrosheet. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Massive crying face emoji. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. We're asking for your help to make it. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Im a little stubborn in that way. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . How much will he be worth? Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. As was the case with the offensive player-comps group, Heyward is more accomplished than almost all of the players on this list. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. He clearly can the man stands 65. Heres why. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Thats just how it goes. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Its not surprising. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Look at Jason Heyward. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. by Retrosheet. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? That was awesome, Kapler said. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. His 2012 projections are strong Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Its not that he cant hit the ball out to all fields, but his career-best homer rate is to the pull side. Forget about everything else. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Chicago Cubs. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. FanGraphs Membership. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. by Retrosheet. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Gavin Lux is likely . Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. The team is confident in . Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers.
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